Kenneth D. Gartrell

By: Kenneth D. Gartrell

A review of: A Bound Man: Why We Are Excited About Obama and Why He Can’t Win by Shelby Steele – with some analysis and extensions.

In his book, Shelby Steele makes an excellent diagnosis of the Obama approach. He also tells us that Obama will hit a wall in his ability to gain votes.

As Steele develops his explanation of the Obama electoral strategies, he starts with going over the fundamental ways that blacks deal with the issue of racism when interacting with whites. At a later point in his book, Steele types Obama as one who operates behind the “mask” that Steele labels as “bargainer.” In this regard, Steele believes that Obama is running on the wide theme of “change,” while trying to straddle the issues and strike a contingent position where he will “bargain” during the fall campaign, with hopes of closing a sale with the large share of white voters he will need to make it to the White House.

In his final analysis, Steele believes that the electorate will not be able to resolve Obama’s contingency approach and will be frustrated by the belief that they do not know where Obama stands at the instant they pull the lever in the privacy of the voting booth. Steele says you have to stand for something to be President – you cannot stand for everything and nothing at the same time. You also cannot bargain your way into the greatest office in the world.

Let’s just say for now that Steele has a theory, but we would have to say the outcome of the election is an empirical question.

In my own election research on the economic issues, I have looked into the substance of the Obama economic position and I have reached, as most readers will know, the conclusion that Obama’s economic positions are essentially Marxist and Communist leaning stances and are so far to the left that it is difficult to believe they cannot be “bargained” with concerning the electorate in time to close the deal in the election.

As the ticket now stands with Biden on board, all we can conclude is that the Vice Presidential selection reinforces the Steele analysis as to the domestic and economic agenda. Ostensibly, the bargaining gap has been closed on foreign affairs with Biden. It is hard to conceive, however, how Biden will be able to help Obama negotiate on the economic agenda – especially if McCain fills the breech with Romney.

Behind the Mask

Barack Obama wears the mask of the “bargainer” in his efforts to appeal to the American white population without abandoning the racial agenda of the black population, which he needs for electoral success. Steele also believes that Obama has been effective by adopting a separate “mask” when speaking to primarily black audiences, whereby he adopts the “challenger” model which appears a more courageous and inspirational role to the blacks. We might think of this as saying that when Obama speaks to whites, he does it the way Tiger Woods does it. In this case, he says, “I assume you are not a racist until you prove otherwise.” On the other hand, when speaking to black audiences, he is more inclined to be the “challenger” in the spirit of Malcolm X – an Obama hero. In this mode he is saying to blacks, “I assume the white man is racist until he proves otherwise.” This is generally a very interesting example of how Obama can be seen to be taking a straddle position. At the very core of his electoral strategy, he is in a contingent position and we are confused over where he really stands.

The Essential Electoral Facts

Obama won the Democratic nomination by gaining 95% of the black vote in the party. Although that voting block is only 16% of the population, it represents fully about 35% of the Democratic Primary voters. It is crucial to focus on the fact that 95% of 35% equals 33.25%.

To get to the 51% of the primary vote overall, he then also added 17.75% of all other voter segments where he contested Hillary Clinton. To get to this he had to net 27.30% of the remaining 65% (this equals 17.75% of primary voters).

The Steele hypothesis is that in order to cobble the coalitions to make a deal with the 27.30% of non-black primary voters, Obama made a series of deals that will not translate into the general election.

In the general election, Obama will hold his black constituents. We can expect that outcome because the black support has been consistent and unwavering. However, the crucial consideration is that 95% of 16% is only 15.2% of the expected total vote. As such, to win the election Obama will have to obtain at least 35.8% of the non-black voter groups. Thus, he will have to get 42.62% of the remaining 84% of the non-black vote in the total population.

It can be argued that it should not be difficult for Obama to gain this percentage. Steele takes the position though that Obama cannot bargain his way to the 42.62% or its Electoral College equivalent when starting from the far-left primary and when having no identifiable positions ex ante. We might just simplify the analysis by saying that Obama cannot make the wide-ranging deal he needs to make in the general election by Election Day.

At the present time Obama remains, and has been for some time, polling at only 42% of the overall vote. Assuming Obama still holds the black vote behind his “challenger” mask, he is only polling at 31.92% of the non-black vote.

The ultimate question is how Obama gets the added and incremental 10.8% of the 84% of the non-black vote to win the general election. To answer this question, we have to analyze first how transferable the primary non-black vote is to the overall electorate. Once that is understood, the next step is to determine where the added vote can come from and how it can be bargained. See my articles on this subject here on the blog and I will also be back later with some answers to this question. More to follow!